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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.